Aug 19, 2009 115 reads by Navneet Kaushal

Google is all about innovations! Here comes the latest that the search giant is all set to predict future search trends. This means, Google knows what searchers will be searching for in twelve months from now. Is not it interesting? Well, it may not be able to predict everything, but for general search queries Google is all confident!

“For each trends sequence of interest, we take a point in time, t, which is about a year back, compute a one year forecasting for t based on historical data available at time t, and compare it to the actual trends sequence that occurs since time t. The error between the forecasting trends and the actual trends characterizes the predictability level of a sequence, and when the error is smaller than a pre-defined threshold, we denote the trends query as predictable.”– Google Google has been working to predict the future search trends and in that process they have come up with many findings. Some of observations include:

  • It was found that more than half of the most popular Google search queries are predictable in a 12 month ahead forecast, with a mean absolute prediction error of about 12 percent.
  • Almost half of the most popular queries can not be predicted with respect to the model or pattern used by google.
  • There are some search categories that have high fraction of predictable queries such as Health (74%), Food & Drink (67%) and Travel (65%). Some categories having low fraction of predictable queries include Entertainment (35%) and Social Networks & Online Communities (27%).

Below is a chart showing Google's margin of error which stays consistent even when making predictions 9 months out:

Navneet Kaushal

Navneet Kaushal

Navneet Kaushal is the founder and CEO of PageTraffic, an SEO Agency in India with offices in Chicago, Mumbai and London. A leading search strategist, Navneet helps clients maintain an edge in search engines and the online media. Navneet's expertise has established PageTraffic as one of the most awarded and successful search marketing agencies.
Navneet Kaushal
Navneet Kaushal
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